Top Predictions for Affiliate Marketing Over the Next 5 Years
Affiliate marketing is constantly evolving, and at ClickCraft, we work tirelessly to stay ahead of the curve, leveraging the latest trends to add real value to your affiliate programme. We don’t believe in keeping all our insights to ourselves, so here are our top predictions for what’s coming in the next 5 years.
1. A Move Toward Hybrid Commission Models
Affiliate marketing has long been dominated by cost-per-acquisition (CPA) models, positioning it as a bottom-funnel solution. However, we expect a shift toward hybrid commission structures, integrating cost-per-click (CPC) alongside CPA. This change is already underway, with large editorial sites recognising the value of commerce content as a monetisation opportunity. By expanding beyond pure CPA, affiliate marketing will become a stronger mid-funnel player, increasing its value to brands and cementing its place in broader marketing strategies.
2. Improved Tracking and Attribution Models
For too long, affiliate marketing has relied on last-click attribution, meaning, along with the limited nature of CPA first, have relegated ourselves as solely an acquisition channel and neglecting our impact across the entire funnel. Over the next decade, this will change as tracking capabilities evolve, offering brands deeper insights into customer journeys and incrementality. Enhanced journey path reporting will allow brands to understand the full influence of affiliate touchpoints rather than just focusing on last-click conversions. More sophisticated attribution models, such as linear or data-driven attribution, will become the norm, leading to commission structures that more accurately reflect an affiliate’s contribution.
3. Greater Cost Efficiency Through SaaS-Based Networks
As affiliate networks continue shifting toward SaaS platforms, brands will gain more granular control over commission structures, a shift pioneered by platforms like Impact Radius and Partnerize. This will enable brands to assign commissions based on much more granular attributes rewarding affiliates based on their contribution to brand KPIs. These advancements will make affiliate marketing more cost-efficient and flexible, allowing brands to allocate spend more strategically.
4. AI-Driven Affiliate Programmes Will Become the Norm, But Human Interaction Will Stay
According to a recent article by Hello Partner AI chat bots were used by a fifth of consumers to find Black Friday deals inn 2024. No future trends list is complete without mentioning AI. Artificial intelligence will play an increasingly vital role in affiliate marketing, automating everything from partner selection to campaign optimisation. AI will enable brands to personalise offers, predict high-performing affiliates, and refine commission structures in real time. However, affiliate marketing remains fundamentally relationship-driven, with partnerships at its core. While AI will enhance efficiency, the human element will continue to be essential.
5. Regulatory Frameworks Tighten Further
Stricter regulations around affiliate disclosures, data collection, and advertising transparency are inevitable. Brands will need to ensure full compliance with evolving guidelines, particularly in the UK, EU, and US. Google’s recent SERP changes, aimed at policing fake voucher codes, indicate a shift in how search engines manage affiliate content. Additionally, increased scrutiny of browser extensions like Honey has raised concerns about how affiliates interact with consumers and track purchases. These developments signal a move towards greater accountability and transparency in the affiliate space.
6. Affiliate Marketing Will Take On Industry Titans
With online advertising dominated by Meta and Google (and Amazon making inroads), affiliate marketing has often been treated as an afterthought. However, the rise of live streaming and shoppable content on platforms like TikTok is changing the game, making affiliate marketing an increasingly attractive monetisation method for content creators and digital publishers. Over the next decade, this trend will continue to grow, and e-commerce brands that fail to adapt risk being left behind.
Final Thoughts
The next 5 years will bring major shifts to affiliate marketing, with hybrid commission models, improved tracking, and increased cost efficiency leading the way. Agencies and brands that embrace these changes early will gain a significant competitive advantage, integrating affiliate marketing more effectively into their overall digital strategy.
This isn't a list of specular possibilities like affiliate marketing in the meta-verse (that was always a pipe dream let's be honest...) this is a list grounded in trends happening now. At Clickcraft we build realistic affiliate strategies with a focus on future growth. Contact us if you need advice on your affiliate programme.